Greener BeeGreen TipsNFL Picks Week 7: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

In the wake of the Arizona Cardinals dissecting the New York Jets in 28-3 fashion on Monday Night Football, the NFL can advance to what looks like one of the more interesting weeks of the season.

“Interesting” meaning lucrative for bettors. The week starts easy enough with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football in a predictable affair before moving on to a slate looking good on paper.

Unpredictable games such as Minnesota-Philadelphia and Seattle-Arizona exist, of course. But for the most part, bettors have a clear avenue to bankroll building six weeks into the season with it now understood where most of the league stands.

Here is an odds guide to help assist with the pursuit.

    

NFL Week 7 Odds

Matchup
Spread
O/U
Predicted Winner
Chicago at Green Bay (TNF)
GB -9
46.5
GB 34-20
N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams
NYG -2.5
44
NYG 23-20
Washington at Detroit
DET -1
48.5
WAS 27-23
Minnesota at Philadelphia
MIN -1.5
40
MIN 23-14
Cleveland at Cincinnati
CIN -10.5
46
CIN 30-20
Indianapolis at Tennessee
TEN -1.5
48
TEN 24-20
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets
E
42.5
BAL 27-20
Oakland at Jacksonville
JAC -1.5
49
OAK 28-24
New Orleans at Kansas City
KC -7
50.5
KC 30-21
Buffalo at Miami
BUF -2
44.5
MIA 27-24
San Diego at Atlanta
ATL -6
53
ATL 28-23
Tampa Bay at San Francisco
E
47.5
SF 23-20
New England at Pittsburgh
NE -2
46
NE 34-24
Seattle at Arizona
ARI -2
43.5
SEA 24-20
Houston at Denver (MNF)
DEN -6.5
41.5
DEN 24-17

Odds Shark; author’s projections. Dallas, Carolina on bye.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

    

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Rank
Team (Super Bowl Odds)
1
New England Patriots (15-4)
2
Minnesota Vikings (9-1)
3
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1)
4
Dallas Cowboys (25-1)
5
Green Bay Packers (9-1)
6
Denver Broncos (10-1)
7
Seattle Seahawks (8-1)
8
Atlanta Falcons (25-1)
9
New York Giants (50-1)
10
Buffalo Bills (66-1)
11
Washington (66-1)
12
Philadelphia Eagles (22-1)
13
Kansas City Chiefs (28-1)
14
Oakland Raiders (33-1)
15
Arizona Cardinals (18-1)
16
Cincinnati Bengals (28-1)
17
Miami Dolphins (200-1)
18
Baltimore Ravens (40-1)
19
New York Jets (100-1)
20
Jacksonville Jaguars (125-1)
21
New Orleans Saints (125-1)
22
Houston Texans (28-1)
23
Tennessee Titans (500-1)
24
Detroit Lions (200-1)
25
Los Angeles Rams (40-1)
26
Indianapolis Colts (50-1)
27
Carolina Panthers (22-1)
28
San Diego Chargers (150-1)
29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (200-1)
30
San Francisco 49ers (1000-1)
31
Chicago Bears (250-1)
32
Cleveland Browns (3000-1)

Author’s rankings, odds via Odds Shark

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.  

    

Matchup Tips

Get the Week Started Off Right: Chicago at Green Bay (-9)

Bettors won’t see a Thursday game recommended often. The short week takes a toll on the bodies of players and on the prep side of things, often leading to unpredictable results, if not a poor show.

Not this week.

No, the Packers would almost have to try to lose at home for bettors to fail here. The Bears have a backup quarterback under center in Brian Hoyer, and while he’s thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games, it has only equated to more than 20 points once. Chicago is too injured on both sides of the ball, preventing it from competing at a high level, hence the 1-5 record with losses to the lowly Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Not all is right for Green Bay, either. The team dropped a 30-16 decision to the Dallas Cowboys to land at 3-2. While many will point to offensive woes, ESPN’s Adam Schefter pointed out another area supporters need to worry about:

Thursday is a good way to fine-tune both issues. The Bears have allowed 23 or more points in four games this year, while the offense doesn’t have a way to score in reliable fashion.

These aren’t the same Packers as last year, but it’s more of the same from the Bears. On a short week, the better team at home will roll.

Prediction: Packers 34-20

    

Top Line: New England (-2) at Pittsburgh

The game of the week will suffer from a quality standpoint thanks to the injury to Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but it makes the betting job easy. 

Take the New England Patriots at home in comfortable fashion. Big Ben won’t miss a ton of time after having a minor surgery on his knee, per Pro Football Talk, but he won’t be able to give it a go in Week 7.

For shame. Pittsburgh took an odd 30-15 road loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. Before that, it had mostly put on a show with outings of 38, 24, 43 and 31 points, making a showdown with Tom Brady and the Patriots seem like a must-see shootout.

Now only one side will erupt. New England played those same Dolphins in Week 2 sans Brady and still posted a 31-24 win. Brady has been back two games, both wins, and has thrown for 782 yards and six touchdowns. The final scores? Silly, really—33-13 and 35-17.

The wrath of Brady won’t stop now. He’s hot already, no warm-up game necessary. If this were in Pittsburgh, the outlook might seem slightly altered, but bettors need to hop all over this before the line grows in New England’s favor. 

Prediction: Patriots 34-24

    

Prop Analysis 

Atlanta Falcons (25-1)

This line might have seemed a little odd before the season. The Atlanta Falcons have underachieved for a few years, but it’s clear this season the NFC South runs through their city.

So it goes with an MVP candidate under center. Matt Ryan has completed 68.1 percent of his passes with 2,075 yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions this year. As such, the team only has two losses, one a tough divisional game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the other a Week 6 loss on the road to the Seattle Seahawks by all of two points.

If anything, the latter loss should encourage bettors. It was the second of a brutal two-game road stretch. Atlanta started the stretch off right by winning in Denver, 23-16.

With two teams at 2-3 and the Carolina Panthers at 1-5, Atlanta won’t have to work too hard to make the playoffs. It’s an incredible situation for a 25-1 mark and one bettors need to grab in a hurry.

    

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-1)

The injury to Big Ben shouldn’t cause bettors to panic.

At all. He’ll be back sooner rather than later based on a statement from head coach Mike Tomlin, captured by Bob Labriola of the team’s official website:

The Steelers can afford a down week or two with how the rest of the AFC North looks. The Baltimore Ravens are the only other team in the once-proud division at .500 or better, sitting on a 3-3 record.

While Week 7 looks like a loss, Pittsburgh’s elite offense still gets five more games against a miserable division and other winnable contests against teams such as the Colts and Buffalo Bills.

There’s no reason to avoid investing unless news of a setback with Big Ben emerges. The Steelers look well on the way to the playoffs, and few teams boast as much confidence or experience there upon arrival.

    

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.

Article source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2670253-nfl-picks-week-7-tips-and-predictions-for-prop-bets-overunder-lines-and-odds


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